تحلیل تفاوت میزان آمادگی ذهنی- نگرشی خانوارهای شهر شیراز در برابر زلزله

Each year, there are many losses and damages as a result of natural disasters all over the world. Earthquake is one of the most sudden and unpredictable of these events. According to experts view, although we cannot prevent the occurrence of natural disasters, especially earthquakes, but we are able to take measures to reduce vulnerability and rapid relief and reconstruction. In fact, crisis is a sudden and unusual condition happening as a result of natural and unnatural in fortuity. Community readiness toward crisis is a cost effective method can decrease the damages. Shiraz City is located in Zagros folds with high tendency to earthquake. Thus, we did the analysis of different readiness in attitudinal – mental states of Shiraz communities in order to plan effectively for future crisis. Therefore, in relation to Shiraz city risk degree to earthquake hazard, research hypotheses of this article are offered as follows: (1) the mental - attitudes readiness toward earthquake locations in Shiraz is located in the lower level. (2) It seems there is a significant correlation between neighborhoods readiness and socio-economic situation.
For the reduction of urban vulnerability to earthquake and making appropriate policies and strategies, we first should know why and how vulnerability in is more concentrated in specific urban spaces and among specific groups and people. In this relation, we focus only on physical-technical aspects, and ignore the socio- economical aspects of vulnerability. Thus, we have no idea about which groups of people and why are more vulnerable. In fact, it is inequal distribution of social and spatial resources, properties and chances in society that forms these socio-spatial differences of vulnerability. Therefore, analysis and vulnerability reduction of natural hazards at society scale needs systematic and integrated consideration in a holistic view. Ignoring socio-economical vulnerability aspects and status, and mere concentration on hazards and their effects can ruin vulnerability reduction policies due to ignoring half of the reality.
However, the conducted researches in Iran were merely focused on either physical-technical aspects or on different influences and consequences of hazard happenings. In fact, concentration on "hazard intensity and resulted disaster" and also prevalence of "loss ideas and physical solution" is the feature of most vulnerability measurements and analysis of earthquakes in Iran. But, to reduction of cities vulnerability to earthquake, it is essential to evaluate the social dimensions of vulnerability and its spatial distribution.
Therefore, development and disaster reduction are not two agendas, but a single agenda. Disaster planning should be part of developmental planning. The “vulnerability... must be integrated as a part of ongoing policies and programs” and don’t ignore socio-economical vulnerability aspects and status.
Methodology
Based on the theoretical bases and previous studies, the operational definition of concept readiness offered at one dimension, three indices and eighteen indicators. For measurement of readiness in terms of mental- perception and combining indexes, we used the multivariate decisions methods: AHP and SAW. Relative weights of the indices and dimensions were gotten by experts and Group AHP and Expert Choice software.
For testing hypotheses, at framework of quantitative-survey research method, we used causal-comparative and correlation methods. Sample size of households was calculated by Cochran's method up to 322 individuals. For sampling, we first classified Shiraz city regions in three groups: high, middle and low in relation to socio-economic status. Then, we randomly selected one neighbor from each class, totally three neighbors (high, middle and low). Household questionnaires were organized by both the general and specific questions about the quality of reconstruction. The household questionnaires validity was investigated through content, formal and its reliability through Cronbach's alpha test. Then, the needed data were also gathered by 350 household questionnaires and 20 expert questionnaires. The gathered data were analyzed by statistic test, included: One-way ANOVA and Tukey-test for the hypotheses; and correlation methods for second hypotheses.
In the descriptive analysis in a comparative approach we determined the variables in the sample population (families of neighbourhoods) and the differences between them using descriptive statistics (frequencies, measures of centralization and fragmentation). Inferential statistics were used to analyze the differences between the level of preparedness, as well as indicators of socio-economic status and its components. In this regard, according to analysis of difference between the groups, the Fisher F (One-way Analysis Of Variance) and Tukey test were used to test the difference between dependent and independent variables among the three groups.
Results and Discussion
The results of this research showed that sample neighbors are different in relation to variables such as: literacy, household dimension, income and occupation. For mentally readiness for-a view class averages are 36, 35 and 35. The scale is set between 1 and 100; the values less than 40 indicate low or low levels of readiness. The scale defined as the amount of mental readiness show the attitude of households in the city is low. Thus, the first hypothesis was confirmed. Attitudinal – mental readiness did not have any significantly difference in the three neighbors (high, middle and low) and this was located at the low level.
The results of correlation test showed that there are significant relations between the readiness and age, income, occupation at 95% and education, socio-economic status variables at 99 percent of confidence. Thus, the second hypothesis is also confirmed.
Conclusion
According to the findings of the research, readiness Mental- Perception at society scale, including urban society, has socio-economical aspect. Thus, analysis and promote of readiness to natural hazards at society scale needs systematic and integrated consideration in a holistic view. These results strengthen this theorem that: "the degree of people readiness to natural hazards is related to their social conditions and position in the society". In other words, disaster mitigation is a complicated process and most of its components can't be considered as disaster only, since they are also related to development. Thus, failure in management of the key roots of poverty and underdevelopment means more vulnerability and failure in disaster management. Therefore, socio-economic factors such as poverty reduction and socio-economic empowerment of households and individuals must be considered seriously in hazard mitigation.