تحلیل عوامل مؤثر کالبدی و اجتماعی بر تحقق‌پذیری شهر دوستدار سالمند مطالعه موردی: شهر ورامین

 ABSTRACT
The increase in life expectancy, along with the decrease in the birth rate in Iran, has caused a similar condition in recent years, and it is expected that many big and small cities, such as Varamin, will experience this condition in the future years. The current research was conducted to analyze the physical and social components of attaining an age-friendly city in the urban space of Varamin. The present research method is descriptive-analytical and, according to the purpose, is among applied studies. The data and information of this research were collected through the study of library and survey sources, and qualitative and quantitative methods were used for their analysis. The results of the research indicate that the highest rank in the components is related to "social participation," and the lowest average is related to the component "respect for the elderly and social respect," and respectively, the highest percentage of dissatisfaction of the elderly is related to the lack of conventional medical services, family counselors, and access to a safe transportation network for the elderly. Also, the findings of the research showed that the average of all the examined criteria is not at the standard level, and they are far from reaching the desired level. Also, in order to identify the factors effective for the age-friendly city of Varamin, the factor analysis method was used, which explains 64.05% of the total variance of 26 items out of 10 factors obtained with an eigenvalue higher than 1. Among them, 2 factors "Transportation and social activities" and "Physical infrastructure" have been the most important in this field with the explanation of 12 items.
Extended Abstract
Introduction
One of the prominent characteristics of the 21st century is the rapid movement of the world population toward aging, which has emerged as a biological, social, and cultural reality in the last century. While it has been the source of significant developments and changes, it has been recognized as a major challenge. The number of people aged 65 and over worldwide is projected to more than double from 761 million in 2021 to 1.6 billion in 2050. Statistical indicators show that the process of population aging has started in our country, and it is predicted that in the next 20 years, from 2006 to 2026, 10 years should be added to the average age of the country's population. Iran is also experiencing the transition phase of the population's age structure from youth to old age. Before the intentions, it shows that after UAE and Bahrain, Iran is the third country in the world in terms of population aging speed, and this condition adds to the importance of the issue in the country.
Demographic changes show that the population of Iranian elderly increased almost 4 times between 1976 and 2016, and it is predicted that in 2035 and 2050 order 11 and 17 percent of the country's total population. In Tehran, people over 60 years old are about 10.3 Percent. Surveys of the population condition of Varamin city indicate that 4.7% of Varamin area population and 7.6% of Varamin city's population are elderly. The current research seeks to answer the following questions:
1) In line with the attainment of the age-friendly city of Varamin, what are the physical and social dimensions?
2) Which components of the physical and social dimensions have the most significant effect on attaining an age-friendly city?
 
Methodology
The research method is descriptive-analytical. Physical dimensions (Public spaces and buildings, transportation and traffic safety, housing, medical and health services) and social dimensions (respect for the elderly and social respect, social participation, cultural and welfare indicators) have been used. Statistical population by sample method is a possible intake of 120 people. The data collection tools in this part of the researcher-made questionnaire included 31 items, of which 5 items are related to the characteristics of the respondents and 26 items are related to the physical and social components of the age-friendly city. In order to statistically analyze the data, SPSS software was used by T-TEST and factor analysis models. Varamin is the center of the Varamin district, located in Tehran province, 35 kilometers southeast of Tehran. The area of Varamin city is 20,400 hectares, and the city's population, according to the statistics 2016, is equal to 225.628. The population of Varamin in Iran Statistics Center in 2016 shows that the population of men 60 years and older was 8786, and the population of women 60 years and older was 8398. The results of the general population and housing census conducted from 1956 to 2016 indicate that the population of Varamin city has increased more than 40 times during this period.
 
Results and discussion
Based on the results of the KMO test, the value of which equals 0.622. Research data can be reduced to the number of sub-structural and fundamental factors. Also, the result of Bartlett's test (871.589), which has an error level of less than 0.001, is significant and shows that the correlation matrix is not the same as the unit. Moreover, on the other hand, there is a high correlation between each factor, and from the other side, some objects with the object. No correlation is observed with other factors in this research; rotation, and Arimax have been used to obtain significant factors. According to the process of factor analysis, only factors whose eigenvalue is higher than one are extracted. In the present research, 10 factors have an eigenvalue higher than 1. Therefore, 10 factors can be made from the total of 26 items. These 10 factors explain 64.049% of the total variance of 26 items.
 
Conclusion
The results of the research showed that the average of all the criteria of the case of the examination (physical and social) was lower than the standard level, which means that they are not even up to the level of meeting the basic needs of the elderly. The only component, "community participation," with an average, is more favorable. Also, the research results show the status of some indicators of the case review, like conventional and free medical services for the elderly and family counselors with a focus on the elderly and access to a convenient transportation network. Safety is more critical than other indicators, with the most dissatisfaction among the elderly and Varamini. Therefore, effective measures and planning should be done in the city development planning in line with the welfare of the elderly. Improving the physical and social components of the elderly of Varamin city, who will account for a large part of the elderly population in the coming years, is one of the important pillars of the city's progress and sustainability. Urban spaces should be designed so elderly people can benefit from urban services without dependence and by receiving minimal assistance. Since the elderly have different needs in society, during their old age, the relationship between them and society becomes weak, and this issue causes many emotional problems and even fuels family disputes. According to this research, Varamin is weak and unable to provide social and physical services to the elderly.
 
Funding
There is no funding support.
 
Authors’ Contribution
Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved the content of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work declaration of competing interest none.
 
Conflict of Interest
Authors declared no conflict of interest.
 
Acknowledgments
We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper