Causal-Layered Analysis of Environmental Considerations in the 2031 Program of Isfahan Municipality

ABSTRACT
The city of Isfahan is facing multiple environmental challenges, including water scarcity, air pollution, and climate change, issues that severely threaten the quality of life for its residents and pose serious obstacles to achieving sustainable urban development. In this context, the “Isfahan 2031 Program,” a large-scale strategic plan initiated by the municipality, aims to improve environmental conditions, enhance quality of life, and increase the city’s resilience to environmental hazards. This study seeks to provide a deeper analysis of the underlying factors contributing to environmental crises and to identify effective, sustainable, and applicable solutions. Environmental issues are analyzed at four levels such as first, visible and everyday problems; second, structural and managerial factors; third, dominant policy-making paradigms; and fourth, cultural beliefs and symbols that shape public attitudes toward the environment. Data were collected through document review, analysis of municipal reports, citizen surveys, and interviews with 300 experts, scholars, and urban managers. The findings indicate that the 2031 Program faces fundamental challenges in its implementation and requires a comprehensive, system-oriented, participatory, and cross-sectoral approach to succeed. Key barriers include a lack of inter-agency coordination, insufficient financial resources, institutional fragmentation, and the neglect of community-based capacities. Moreover, the study reveals that without reforming managerial mindsets and rethinking urban governance models, achieving meaningful improvements in the city’s environmental status will not be feasible.
Extended Abstract
Introduction
In recent decades, cities have expanded rapidly and transformed into large urban centers. By 2030, it is predicted that 60% of the world’s population will live in urban areas, with one-third of them residing in cities with at least 50,000 inhabitants. This growth has made cities central to capital accumulation, political tensions, social development, service provision, and global connectivity. However, urban expansion has brought about numerous challenges, including pressure on natural resources, environmental degradation, and changes in energy consumption patterns. Moreover, cities face environmental challenges such as pollution, waste management issues, and biodiversity loss, which threaten both urban livability and global sustainability.
In response to these challenges, sustainable urban development has become a central focus, balancing economic growth, social justice, and environmental protection. In this context, urban planning that integrates environmental considerations is crucial, although it faces significant challenges, including economic pressures and the complexity of urban areas. Esfahan, as one of Iran's major cities, exemplifies these complexities. It faces issues such as air pollution, water scarcity, and environmental degradation, while also experiencing rapid urban growth. The Esfahan Strategic-Operational Plan 2031 aims to integrate environmental, social, and economic factors into urban development. However, questions remain about how well ecological concerns have been incorporated into this plan. This research, using Causal Layered Analysis (CLA), seeks to explore the ecological considerations embedded in the 2031 Plan. By examining the plan through multiple layers, observable factors, systemic causes, worldviews, and metaphors, this study aims to provide a deeper understanding of the role of environmental issues in Esfahan's future development and suggest improvements for the plan's ecological aspects.
This research aims to answer the following questions:
-To what extent have ecological considerations been integrated into the Esfahan 2031 Plan?
-How can the plan be improved from an ecological perspective?
The results may offer valuable insights for urban development strategies in other major cities across Iran.
 
Methodology
This applied, analytical-interpretive research focuses on the future study of Esfahan, aiming to identify and analyze environmental issues in the city. It follows a three-step approach such as identification and description, analysis and deepening, and recommendation. The participants include 300 experts, professors, managers, and elites selected for their experience and expertise in environmental issues. Data were collected from 25 documents, environmental analysis, interviews with academic and urban experts, surveys from Esfahan citizens, and social media analysis. Issues were identified through inductive content analysis. The Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) method, applied in four layers, litany, systemic causes, worldview/discourse, and myth/metaphor, was used for deeper analysis. This method integrates empirical, interpretive, critical, and action-learning perspectives, aiming to uncover alternative futures by decoding present and past issues, rather than predicting specific outcomes. The workshop approach of CLA facilitated a participatory and interactive environment, allowing for a comprehensive and strategic understanding of Esfahan's complex urban challenges.
 
Results and discussion
This study uses the layered causal analysis method to examine environmental and urban issues in the 2031 Strategic Plan of Isfahan Municipality. The findings reveal that the plan primarily focuses on superficial and short-term measures, such as reducing pollutants and improving air quality, which have not been effective in addressing structural and long-term problems. Issues like the water crisis and air pollution stem from deeper causes, including mismanagement of resources, misguided economic policies, and unsustainable consumption patterns. The layered causal analysis approach allows for the identification of more comprehensive solutions, such as policy reforms and changes in consumption behavior, to address these problems.
 
Conclusion
This study emphasizes that achieving sustainable urban development in Isfahan requires addressing the root causes of environmental issues, rather than relying on short-term solutions. The Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) method helps identify deeper, structural causes, offering long-term and sustainable solutions. For example, addressing the water crisis requires regulatory reforms, sustainable economic policies, technological investments, and collaboration between sectors. This approach aligns with prior research by Zobardast and Derskhan (2021) and Fouladi et al. (2022), which stress the importance of strategic analysis for improving environmental conditions. Reforming Isfahan’s 2031 Strategic Plan can turn it into a model for tackling environmental crises and promoting sustainable urban growth.
 
Funding
It is based on a research project with the Isfahan Municipality.
 
Authors’ Contribution
Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved the content of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work declaration of competing interest none.
 
Conflict of Interest
Authors declared no conflict of interest.
 
Acknowledgments
The authors would like to thank all those who helped us in conducting this research, especially those who assessed the quality of the articles.