Document Type : Research article
Authors
1
Institute for Humanities and Social Studies ACECR
2
University of Mohaghegh Ardabili
3
Statistical Research and Training Center
4
, Imam Khomeini International University
5
Institute for Humanities and social Studies, ACECR
10.22059/jurbangeo.2025.385987.2015
Abstract
The growth of urban populations and population aging have been identified as two defining characteristics of the 21st century. Population aging is a global and widespread phenomenon driven by various factors. This study aims to analyze the key drivers influencing population aging in Tehran. A mixed-methods approach was adopted. The initial identification of drivers was carried out through a scoping review and semi-structured interviews based on the STEEPV model. To refine the list of drivers and evaluate their significance, the Delphi method was utilized, and the MICMAC structural analysis method was employed for cross-impact analysis. The findings revealed that variables such as economic stagnation, globalization, modern values, and purchasing power are independent drivers. Meanwhile, variables including the economic status of society, poverty, unemployment and employment rates, economic inequality, lifestyle, quality of life, migration rates, political stability, individualism and personal values, urbanization, social beliefs and values, social inequality, and social capital are dual-role variables with significant influence on determining the aging trajectory of Tehran. The results indicate that, given the current circumstances, the nature of these drivers, and the projected social and economic changes, Tehran’s population is moving toward aging at an accelerated pace. The emergence of advanced aging within Tehran is considered an inevitable reality. Therefore, it is recommended that, in addition to policies aimed at improving economic conditions and managing social changes to decelerate the aging process, special focus be placed on implementing strategies for active aging, improving and adapting the physical environment, and promoting age-friendly urban policies.
Keywords
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