Study of the Effectiveness of "Technical-Physical" and "Socio-Economic" Strategies in Improving Urban Resilience against Earthquakes

Document Type : Research article

Authors

1 کارشناس

2 Associate Professor, School of Environment, College of Engineering, University of Tehran

3 University of Science and Technology Faculty of Architecture and Urbanism Department Head

Abstract

There is no comprehensive model for quantitative calculation of resiliency. To this end, using documentation studies and expert opinions, the conceptual model of the resiliency of cities against earthquakes were extracted. It is considered that resiliency has social, economics, technical, physical, institutional, and security dimensions. The 6th municipal district of Tehran was considered as case study. Using the proposed index and considering three seismic scenarios, the effectiveness of technical-physical and socio-economics strategies in improving the resiliency of the studied district were compared. In order to better compare strategies, the costs of implementing strategies and the time span of their implementation are also estimated. The weights of social, economic, technical, physical, institutional, and security dimensions were 0.198, 0.153, 0.136, 0.202, 0.151 and 0.159, respectively. The value of the resiliency index is 0.458, 0.454 and 0.456 in North-Tehran fault, Ray fault the floating scenario, respectively. At the best case, the S3 strategy improved the RI by about 33% in all the three assumed seismic scenarios. The T3 strategy for the case of the North Tehran fault scenario improved RI by 31% and in other two seismic scenarios, the improvement was about 28%. S3 strategy is the best strategy for increasing the overall resiliency index considering the cost of implementation as decision measure and the weakest strategy is T1 in this regard. Nevertheless, in terms of the time span as decision measure T1 is the optimal strategy. In the short run, T1 and, in the long run, S2 are the best strategies.

Keywords

References

آژانس همکاری‌های بین‌المللی ژاپن (جایکا)، 1385، ریزپهنه‌بندی لرزه‌ای تهران بزرگ، با همکاری مرکز مطالعات زلزله و زیست‌محیطی تهران بزرگ، گزارش نهایی.
امیدوار بابک و آسیه سلطانی، 1397، «کمی‌سازی برگشت‌پذیری زیرساخت‌های شهری و کاربرد آن در انتخاب راهکارهای مقاوم‌سازی لرزه‌ای (مطالعة موردی: ایستگاه 15 خرداد متروی شیراز)»، مهندسی زیرساخت‌های حمل‌ونقل، دورة چهارم، شمارة 2، صص 29-48.
بهزادفر، مصطفی، امیدوار، بابک، قاسمی، رضا و محمدباقر قالیباف، 1397، «تدوین شاخص تاب‌آوری شهری در مقابل زلزله»، فصلنامة علمی-پژوهشی امداد و نجات، دورة نهم، شمارة ۳، صص ۸۰-۸۶.
هجرتی، سید عباس، 1385، ارزیابی راهبردهای مؤثر بر مدیریت بحران (بلایای طبیعی) در طرح‌های توسعة شهری (مورد مطالعه: مجموعة شهری تهران)، پایان‌نامة دورة کارشناسی ارشد برنامه‌ریزی شهری و منطقه‌ای، دانشکدة هنر، دانشگاه تربیت‌مدرس.
Ainuddin, S., and Routray, J. K., 2012, Community Resilience Framework for an Earthquake Prone Area in Baluchistan, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, Vol. 2, PP. 25-36.
Batabyal, A. A., 1998, The Concept of Resilience: Retrospect and Prospect, Environment and Development Economics, Vol. 3, No. 2, PP. 221-262.
Behzadfar, M., Omidvar, B., Ghasemi, R., and Qalibaf, M. B., 2018, Development of Urban Resilience Index against Earthquake, Journal of Rescue and Rescue Research, Vol. 9, No. 3, PP. 80-86. (In Persian)
Bruneau, M., Chang, S. E., Eguchi, R. T., Lee, G. C., O'Rourke, T. D., Reinhorn, A. M., and Von Winterfeldt, D., 2003, A Framework to Quantitatively Assess and Enhance the Seismic Resilience of Communities, Earthquake Spectra, Vol. 19, No. 4, PP. 733-752.
Burton, Christopher G., 2012, The Development of Metrics for Community Resilience to Natural Disasters, Phd Thesis, College of Arts and Sciences, California State University.
Cai, H., Lam, N. S., Qiang, Y., Zou, L., Correll, R. M., ans Mihunov, V., 2018, A Synthesis of Disaster Resilience Measurement Methods and Indices, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction.
Chang, S. E., and Shinozuka, M., 2004, Measuring Improvements in the Disaster Resilience of Communities, Earthquake Spectra, Vol. 20, No. 3, PP. 739-755.
Cohen, O., Leykin, D., Lahad, M., Goldberg, A., and Aharonson-Daniel, L., 2013, The Conjoint Community Resiliency Assessment Measure As a Baseline for Profiling and Predicting Community Resilience for Emergencies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 80, No. 9, PP. 1732-1741.
Cutter, S. L., Barnes, L., Berry, M., Burton, C., Evans, E., Tate, E., and Webb, J., 2008, A Place-Based Model for Understanding Community Resilience to Natural Disasters, Global Environmental Change, Vol. 18, No. 4, PP. 598-606.
Cutter, S. L., Burton, C. G., and Emrich, C. T., 2010, Disaster Resilience Indicators for Benchmarking Baseline Conditions, Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, Vol. 7, No. 1, PP. 1-22.
Dubé, J., and Polèse, M., 2016, Resilience Revisited: Assessing the Impact of the 2007–09 Recession on 83 Canadian Regions with Accompanying Thoughts on An Elusive Concept, Regional Studies, Vol. 50, No. 4, PP. 615-628.
Franchin, P., and Cavalieri, F., 2015, Probabilistic Assessment of Civil Infrastructure Resilience to Earthquakes, Computer‐Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering, Vol. 30, No. 7, PP. 583-600.
Frazier, T. G., Thompson, C. M., and Dezzani, R. J., 2014, A Framework for the Development of the SERV Model: A Spatially Explicit Resilience-Vulnerability Model, Applied Geography, Vol. 51, PP. 158-172.
Godschalk, D. R., 2003, Urban Hazard Mitigation: Creating Resilient Cities, Natural Hazards Review, Vol. 4, No. 3, PP. 136-143.
Hejrati, A., 2006, Evaluation of Effective Strategies for Crisis Management (Natural Disaster) in the Urban Development Plan (Tehran City), Thesis Master of Urban and Regional Planning, Art Faculty, Tarbiat Modarres University. (In Persian)
Hosseini, S., Barker, K., and Ramirez-Marquez, J. E., 2016, A Review of Definitions and Measures of System Resilience, Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Vol. 145, PP. 47-61.
IFRC (2004) World Disasters Report. Ed. Walter L., Geneva, IFRC. (In Persian)
Mcentire, D. A., Fuller, C., Johnston, C. W., and Weber, R., 2002, A Comparison of Disaster Paradigms: The Search for a Holistic Policy Guide, Public Administration Review, Vol. 62, No. 3, PP. 267-281.
Miles, S. B., 2015, Foundations of Community Disaster Resilience: Well-Being, Identity, Services, and Capitals, Environmental Hazards, Vol. 14, No. 2, PP. 103-121.
Miletti, D.S., 1999, Disasters by Design: A Reassessment of Natural Hazards in the United States, Joseph Henry Press, Washington, DC.
Omidvar, B., and Soltani, A., 2018, Quantification of Resiliency in Infrastructures and Its Application in the Selection of Seismic Retrofitting Strategies (Case Study: 15-Khordad Subway Station in Shiraz), Transport Infrastructure Engineering, Vol. 4, No. 2, PP. 29-48. (In Persian)
Ouyang, M., and Duenas-Osorio, L., 2014, Multi-Dimensional Hurricane Resilience Assessment of Electric Power Systems, Structural Safety, Vol. 48, PP. 15-24.
Parsons M, Glavac S, Hastings P, Marshall G, McGregor J, McNeill J, Morley P, Reeve I, Stayner R., 2016,  Top-Down Assessment of Disaster Resilience: A Conceptual Framework Using Coping and Adaptive Capacities, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, Vol. 19, PP. 1-11.
Renschler, C. S., Frazier, A. E., Arendt, L. A., Cimellaro, G. P., Reinhorn, A. M., and Bruneau, M., 2010, A Framework for Defining and Measuring Resilience at the Community Scale: The PEOPLES Resilience Framework (PP. 10-0006). Buffalo: MCEER.
Saja, A. A., Goonetilleke, A., Teo, M., and Ziyath, A. M., 2019, A Critical Review of Social Resilience Assessment Frameworks in Disaster Management, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 101096.
Shaw, R., and IEDM Team, 2009, Climate Disaster Resilience: Focus on Coastal Urban Cities in Asia, Asian Journal of Environment and Disaster Management, Vol. 1, PP. 101-116.
The Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), 2001, Seismic microzonation of Tehran. In collaboration with the Center for Earthquake and Environmental Studies in Tehran, the final report. (In Persian)
Tyler, S., Reed, S. O., Macclune, K., and Chopde, S., 2010, Planning for Urban Climate Resilience: Framework and Examples from the Asian Cities Climate Change Resilience Network (ACCCRN), Climate Resilience in Concept and Practice: ISET Working Paper, 3, 60.
UNISDR, M., 2009, UNISDR Terminology for Disaster Risk Reduction, United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) Geneva, Switzerland.
Woloszyn, P., 2013, Inductive ESO Model Evolution: Towards a Viable Inference Model of Resilience Dynamics, In 12th Annual International Conference of Territo.
Zhao, X., Cai, H., Chen, Z., Gong, H., and Feng, Q., 2016, Assessing Urban Lifeline Systems Immediately After Seismic Disaster Based on Emergency Resilience, Structure and Infrastructure Engineering, Vol. 12, No. 12, PP. 1634-1649.
Geographical Urban Planning Research (GUPR)
Volume 8, Issue 1
April 2020
Pages 99-114

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics