Analysis of the distribution and spatial pattern of the elderly with an emphasis on the elderly-friendly city: the case study of Qom city

ABSTRACT
Population growth in cities worldwide, particularly in developing countries, is recognized as a prominent and prevailing phenomenon of the modern era. However, this population growth is expected to decline in the coming decades as generational renewal rates decrease, leading to an aging population. These demographic changes have prompted the World Health Organization (WHO) to introduce the concepts of "active aging" and "age-friendly cities," which have now gained widespread attention in urban planning practices. This study investigates and analyzes the spatial distribution pattern of the elderly population in Qom. The necessity of this research arises from the increasing elderly population, which demands more precise and suitable urban planning for this age group. Neglecting the spatial distribution and specific needs of the elderly can result in social inequalities and a lower quality of life for this population. By utilizing objective data, software tools, and spatial analysis models, this research created and analyzed hot and cold spot maps for 2010 and 2015. The findings reveal significant changes in the spatial distribution patterns of the elderly population in Qom. These quantitative and qualitative changes underscore the importance of implementing age-friendly city policies in line with WHO recommendations, highlighting the need for urban planners to give special attention to this issue.
Extended Abstract
Introduction
One of the social phenomena that is increasing across both developed and developing countries is population growth, particularly within the elderly age group, i.e., those aged 65 and older. According to the World Health Organization, the elderly population will exceed two billion by 2050, with more than half residing in Asia and large urban areas. In Iran, demographic studies indicate a trend toward an aging population in major cities, exacerbated by a decline in the population growth rate in recent years. For example, Qom City, one of the country’s major cities, has experienced a growing trend in population aging. As discussed in this article, one of the emerging concepts in urban planning literature is the "age-friendly city," aimed at providing necessary facilities for the elderly population and ensuring their fair distribution. This article aims to investigate and analyze the situation of the elderly in Qom through the lens of age-friendly city components and indicators.
 
Methodology
This research investigates the spatial distribution pattern of the elderly aged 65 and older in Qom for 2011 and 2016. The study was conducted in two main phases. In the first phase, theoretical foundations and literature relevant to the study were gathered and explained. In the second phase, a suitable research model was developed to assess the quantitative and qualitative distribution of the elderly population. Objective and raw data on the elderly population aged 65 and older in Qom were collected according to districts and statistical blocks for 2011 and 2016. Raw maps representing the current situation were then prepared using GIS software. Subsequently, aging indicators, such as the old age ratio, were calculated for the specified years, and relevant analyses were performed. In the second part of the study, after calculating the indicators and preparing related maps using GIS, a hot and cold spot analysis was conducted using the Spatial Analyst tool in GIS. The results of each analysis are presented and discussed. Finally, the research concludes with a summary of findings, conclusions, and necessary recommendations.
 
Results and discussion
The research prepared maps representing the distribution of the elderly population in Qom for 2011 and 2016 based on raw population data. The 2016 aging index map of Qom reveals that the central areas, particularly District 1, have a higher aging index, while peripheral areas, such as Districts 7 and 8, exhibit a lower index.
In 2011, Moran's Index of 0.151307 indicates significant spatial patterns, suggesting the formation of regional clusters with common characteristics among the elderly. The low variance further suggests uniformity in the elderly distribution across different areas. A high z-score and a low p-value underscore that the observed patterns are unlikely to be due to random chance. In 2016, Moran's Index increased to 0.231636, reflecting a notable intensification of spatial patterns. The lower p-value compared to 2011 signifies that the observed differences are statistically more significant than random occurrences. These findings indicate that the spatial patterns of the elderly population in Qom have evolved, with the increase in Moran's Index in 2016 suggesting a growing tendency to form regional clusters or more significant spatial disparities.
A Global Hot Spot Analysis comparison for the elderly population in Qom City between 2011 and 2016 shows significant changes in their geographical distribution. The similarity value increased from 0.3256 to 0.5407, indicating that the spatial patterns 2016 were considerably different from those in 2011. These differences are evident in various aspects, such as changes in the number and location of hot and cold spots. Additionally, the Spatial Fuzzy Kappa value increased significantly from 0.3189, indicating a more significant spatial correlation between the two hot spot analyses, suggesting increased alignment in spatial patterns from 2011 to 2016.
 
Conclusion
In summary, the population aged 65 and older in Qom experienced significant quantitative and qualitative changes in their spatial distribution patterns between 2011 and 2016. These noticeable shifts underscore the need for urban managers and planners to effectively manage this trend by considering elderly-friendly city indicators. By adapting the physical environment and distributing infrastructure that aligns with the needs and characteristics of this age group, Qom can be better prepared to meet the criteria set forth by the World Health Organization for an elderly-friendly city.
 
Funding
There is no funding support.
 
Authors’ Contribution
All authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of this article. Each author has reviewed and approved the content of the manuscript and is in agreement with all aspects of the work. The authors declare that there are no competing interests.
 
Conflict of Interest
Authors declared no conflict of interest.
 
Acknowledgments
We are grateful to all the scientific consultants who contributed to this paper.