شناسایی پیشران‌های کلیدی ارتقای ظرفیت تاب‌آوری در شهرهای پساکرونا با رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی مطالعه موردی: کلان‌شهر مشهد

ABSTRACT
Today, paying attention to the principle of reproduction as one of the factors of creating resilient urban spaces can provide citizens with several options at any time to deal with and reduce the vulnerability and effects of crises such as Corona. The current research was carried out with the aim of identifying the key drivers of improving the resilience capacity in post-corona city of Mashhad with a future research approach. The current research is of qualitative type and in terms of typology "parallel single method". Thus, in order to analyze the qualitative data, meta-combination method (basic analysis) and prospective research approach (supplemental analysis) were used simultaneously. The data collection method of this research included document study and semi-structured individual interview. Its statistical population is managers, experts and university professors in the field of urban planning in Mashhad city, 28 of whom were selected as the sample of the study using the purposeful sampling method and snowball technique. The results of the research show that the distribution of the variables are diagonally scattered and mostly concentrated in the two dimensions of influencing and influencing variables. Also, the results showed that the key and important drivers for the reproduction of the post-corona city are the five drivers "the existence of a communication base between people and the organization", "social integration", "awareness of citizens in dealing with the crisis", "access to doctors and medical services", "Market adjustment- product price" and "cyber space security" are in the system.
Extended Abstract
Introduction
According to available statistics and information, throughout history, the share of epidemic diseases has reduced the world's population even more than the casualties of major wars or other natural events and crises. In the meantime, based on the reports of the World Health Organization, the corona virus is considered a new respiratory virus and an epidemic. Which started in late 2019 and early 2020 from Hubei province and Wuhan city of China and has caused many people to die by spreading dramatically around the world. In this way, the epidemic and widespread spread of the corona virus, with unprecedented acceleration, complexity and little information compared to it, has made human life and specifically its cities and spaces face a difficult test. This issue has turned this virus into a serious crisis for the whole world. After trying and experiencing different policies to contain and control Corona, many researchers and scientists believe that the world should gradually learn to coexist with this virus. In the meantime, improving the urban resilience capacity can be in line with this fruitful coexistence.
Urban resilience refers to a place where cities increase their tolerance against natural and human crises due to proper management and planning, and with the least amount of financial and life damage, he can overcome a crisis and return to his normal state in the shortest time. In fact, urban resilience is the ability of a system and society that has been exposed to risks to resist these conditions, absorb them, adapt to them and finally reduce the effects of risks with an efficient, timely and appropriate behavior. Thus, paying attention to the principle of reproduction as one of the factors of creating resilient urban spaces can provide citizens with several options at any time to deal with and reduce the vulnerability and effects of crises such as Corona.
 
Methodology
The current research is of qualitative type and in terms of typology "parallel single method". Thus, in order to analyze the qualitative data, meta-combination method (basic analysis) and prospective research approach (supplemental analysis) were used simultaneously. The basic analysis has led to the presentation of primary key drivers and the supplementary analysis has led to the explanation of effective and efficient drivers (discovery of cause and effect relationships) and its implementation. The data collection method of this research included document study and semi-structured individual interview. Its statistical population is managers, experts and university professors in the field of urban planning in Mashhad city, 28 of whom were selected as the sample of the study using the purposeful sampling method and snowball technique.
Mac Mac software is also used. At the end, direct and indirect impact and influence matrices are presented, which express the relationships of stable variables of the system. Therefore, the present research seeks to answer the following questions.
- What are the key drivers for improving resilience capacity in post-corona city reproduction?
- How do the drivers lead to the improvement of the resilience capacity in the reproduction of the post-corona city of Mashhad?
 
Results and discussion
After identifying and classifying the investigated propellants, the initial matrix (24x24) was formed. After forming the initial matrix, university managers and professors who make decisions in the field of urban issues were asked to rate the drivers. Therefore, according to the intensity of the effects, points from 0 to 3 have been given to the examined variables based on the Mik-Mik model.
The initial analysis of the matrix data and the cross effects shows that according to the dimensions of the matrix, there are a total of 595 options for the matrix, of which 290 matrix houses are zero, that is, the drivers did not influence each other or were not influenced by each other. On the other hand, 108 houses have a weak influence, 47 houses have a medium influence and 131 houses have a strong influence, totaling 595 houses of the matrix.
After forming the cross matrix, the matrix of direct effects (MDI) was formed based on the averages obtained from the questionnaires. Based on the obtained results, among the studied drivers, the greatest impact on other drivers against the risks of the pandemic (corona) is related to the drivers of financial institutions supporting vulnerable groups, investment for the environmental quality of the city, the existence of a communication base between people and the organization, citizens' awareness and social integration. On the other hand, the greatest effectiveness is related to the drivers of the vitality of the space, the quality of the sidewalks, and the financial institutions that support vulnerable groups. Also, among the main drives, the most effective and influential is related to the physical drive.
 
Conclusion
This research aims to identify and rank the variables and key drivers effective on improving the capacity of resilience in post-corona city reproduction and explaining the possible situations of Mashhad city with a foresight approach. For this purpose, 26 influential indicators in the reproduction of Mashhad city, which have been identified based on the background of studies and field studies, have been analyzed in the environment of Mic Mac software.
The results of the research have shown that that the distribution of the variables are diagonally scattered and mostly concentrated in the two dimensions of influencing and influencing variables. Also, the results showed that the key and important drivers for the reproduction of the post-corona city are the five drivers "the existence of a communication base between people and the organization", "social integration", "awareness of citizens in dealing with the crisis", "access to doctors and medical services", "Market adjustment - product price" and "cyber space security" are in the system.
 
Funding
There is no funding support.
 
Authors’ Contribution
Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved thecontent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work declaration of competing interest none.
 
Conflict of Interest
Authors declared no conflict of interest.
 
Acknowledgments
We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper.