آینده‌پژوهی عوامل مؤثر بر تاب‌آوری کلان‌شهر تهران با تأکید بر کنش‌های مکانی- فضایی

Extended Abstract
Introduction
For a long time, mankind has been trying to achieve a risk-free environment and prepare for possible incidents caused by accidents in order to protect his life, property, and family. Considering that the world is turning into an urban place and it is predicted that in 2025, more than 55% of the world's people will live in cities, and with the increase in the number and variety of natural disasters in human societies, a challenge has been created in the process of realizing sustainable development in the life of human societies. Recent surveys related to the damages caused by natural disasters around the world and in 2001 have led to the identification of 700 natural disasters, which resulted in 25,000 deaths, 36 billion dollars in economic losses, and 11.5 billion dollars in insurance losses (Munichregroup, 2001). Cities are always subject to various changes, which can be radical or gradual changes. To make a city resilient, the ability to continuously monitor various implementation conditions and all the trends that can affect them should be considered. Factors effective in reducing or eliminating the resilience of societies can be seen in natural characteristics, technological factors, economic factors, and human factors (Desouza and Flanery, 2013). The extent of 24% of the unstable tissues of Tehran and the residence of about 42% of the city's residents in crisis-causing tissues are other dangerous cases for citizens (Farhadi et al., 2023), which makes the path of Tehran's resilience difficult. The metropolis of Tehran is witnessing more unstable and unsafe constructions every day, and this is a serious warning for city managers.
 Ineffective urban neighborhoods and areas due to several reasons such as the special conditions of settlements, weak physical, social, economic, and environmental resistance and resilience, the poor condition of access and service networks, high population density, and the occurrence of natural disasters cause a serious and fundamental threat to the They are a disaster. In our research, we intend to examine and analyze the key factors affecting the physical and spatial resilience of Tehran in order to answer the question of this research, to reflect the contribution of the influencing factors in physical and spatial resilience in order to be able to make decisions in many fields. and urban and regional decision-making, be used.
 Therefore, the research in question can involve reaching the question of what key driving forces play a major role in the physical and spatial resilience of the city of Tehran.
 
Methodology
In terms of the goal, the research is of an applied type, which was carried out by a descriptive-analytical method based on documentary library studies and field surveys. Considering the nature of the data and the impossibility of controlling the behavior of the effective variables in the problem, this research was of a non-experimental type and was carried out in the framework of the analytical-case model.
In the first part, the method (Tracking Analyst Tools) was used in the process of network analysis (Spline Tools) in the ArcGIS software environment to spatialize the studied indicators at the level of the texture of the regions  In the second part, we extracted the key factors affecting the spatial-spatial resilience of Tehran by using the combined exploratory methods, assumption-based method, expert opinion-based method, and the method aimed at identifying the issue, and experts and elites (25 people) were asked to Determine the most important components affecting physical resilience within the next 10 years; Finally, 23 variables were determined by Delphi, and MIC-MAC software is used for data analysis.
 
Results and discussion
Resilience in Tehran is unstable and in such a way that the continuation of the current situation will lead to the formation of a disaster scenario, and in the best case, if the current situation continues, the physical resilience in the metropolis of Tehran will increase vulnerability, reduce the penetration coefficient of vital arteries and reduce improvement and strengthening measures. It will lead to the damage of historical buildings, the increase in the distribution of incompatible uses, the decrease in the quality of buildings, etc.
The evaluation results, in addition to the high compliance with the realities surrounding the urban resilience of Tehran, are such that it is possible to measure the overall situation in the framework of prospective studies and use the scenario approach.
Resilience and its stability or instability model were also obtained from the spatial distribution of variables in the level of graphs and output figures from Mic Mac software.
Also, the almost high percentage of the filling factor (95%) in the research variables confirms the validity and reliability of the research tools at an almost high level.
 
Conclusion
The results show that resilience in Tehran follows the macro structure of the economic system of this metropolis. So that more privileged areas have more resilience and less privileged areas have lower resilience. It can be said that the entire urban structure of Tehran is at an unfavorable level of resilience. Failure to improve, neglecting sustainable development and continuing the current situation will lead to bad scenarios in environmental, social and economic fields.   And in the event of a crisis, it will cause irreparable damage to Tehran.
 
Funding
There is no funding support.
 
Authors’ Contribution
E.F. contributed to the data collection, analysis, and manuscript writing. A.P., K.Z. and H.F.S. supervised the article and provided the necessary guidance for analyzing and using the model. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
 
Conflict of Interest
All authors certify that they have no affiliation with or involvement in any organization or entity with any financial interest or non-financial interest in the subject matter or materials discussed in this manuscript.
 
Acknowledgments
 We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper.
ABSTRACT
Urban resilience is the ability to recover in the city system after unexpected events. The purpose of this research is the spatial analysis of the factors influencing the urban resilience of Tehran's metropolis (the political and economic capital of Iran) in the form of physical and spatial indicators to identify the most important factors influencing urban resilience. At first, indicators in 24 categories including water transfer tanks, petrol pump stations, electrical substations, and ..., in the GIS software environment using Overlapping plots showed the resilience of the regions. The future research discussion of this article consists of two parts. In the second part, in order to create a database of existing primary factors about the components of physical and spatial resilience, the technique of environmental scanning (examination of published articles and sources, interviews with experts, and monitoring of conferences and meetings) and the review of the literature background have been used. In the second part, experts and elites were asked to identify the most important factors affecting physical-spatial resilience within the next 10 years; Finally, 23 variables were determined by Delphi, and MIC MAC software was used for data analysis. The findings showed that the resilience of Tehran city is unstable by considering the effect-dependency analysis diagram and indicates the instability of the influential variables and the continuity of their influence on other variables.
Extended Abstract
Introduction
For a long time, mankind has been trying to achieve a risk-free environment and prepare for possible incidents caused by accidents in order to protect his life, property, and family. Considering that the world is turning into an urban place and it is predicted that in 2025, more than 55% of the world's people will live in cities, and with the increase in the number and variety of natural disasters in human societies, a challenge has been created in the process of realizing sustainable development in the life of human societies. Recent surveys related to the damages caused by natural disasters around the world and in 2001 have led to the identification of 700 natural disasters, which resulted in 25,000 deaths, 36 billion dollars in economic losses, and 11.5 billion dollars in insurance losses (Munichregroup, 2001). Cities are always subject to various changes, which can be radical or gradual changes. To make a city resilient, the ability to continuously monitor various implementation conditions and all the trends that can affect them should be considered. Factors effective in reducing or eliminating the resilience of societies can be seen in natural characteristics, technological factors, economic factors, and human factors (Desouza and Flanery, 2013). The extent of 24% of the unstable tissues of Tehran and the residence of about 42% of the city's residents in crisis-causing tissues are other dangerous cases for citizens (Farhadi et al., 2023), which makes the path of Tehran's resilience difficult. The metropolis of Tehran is witnessing more unstable and unsafe constructions every day, and this is a serious warning for city managers.
 Ineffective urban neighborhoods and areas due to several reasons such as the special conditions of settlements, weak physical, social, economic, and environmental resistance and resilience, the poor condition of access and service networks, high population density, and the occurrence of natural disasters cause a serious and fundamental threat to the They are a disaster. In our research, we intend to examine and analyze the key factors affecting the physical and spatial resilience of Tehran in order to answer the question of this research, to reflect the contribution of the influencing factors in physical and spatial resilience in order to be able to make decisions in many fields. and urban and regional decision-making, be used.
 Therefore, the research in question can involve reaching the question of what key driving forces play a major role in the physical and spatial resilience of the city of Tehran.
 
Methodology
In terms of the goal, the research is of an applied type, which was carried out by a descriptive-analytical method based on documentary library studies and field surveys. Considering the nature of the data and the impossibility of controlling the behavior of the effective variables in the problem, this research was of a non-experimental type and was carried out in the framework of the analytical-case model.
In the first part, the method (Tracking Analyst Tools) was used in the process of network analysis (Spline Tools) in the ArcGIS software environment to spatialize the studied indicators at the level of the texture of the regions  In the second part, we extracted the key factors affecting the spatial-spatial resilience of Tehran by using the combined exploratory methods, assumption-based method, expert opinion-based method, and the method aimed at identifying the issue, and experts and elites (25 people) were asked to Determine the most important components affecting physical resilience within the next 10 years; Finally, 23 variables were determined by Delphi, and MIC-MAC software is used for data analysis.
 
Results and discussion
Resilience in Tehran is unstable and in such a way that the continuation of the current situation will lead to the formation of a disaster scenario, and in the best case, if the current situation continues, the physical resilience in the metropolis of Tehran will increase vulnerability, reduce the penetration coefficient of vital arteries and reduce improvement and strengthening measures. It will lead to the damage of historical buildings, the increase in the distribution of incompatible uses, the decrease in the quality of buildings, etc.
The evaluation results, in addition to the high compliance with the realities surrounding the urban resilience of Tehran, are such that it is possible to measure the overall situation in the framework of prospective studies and use the scenario approach.
Resilience and its stability or instability model were also obtained from the spatial distribution of variables in the level of graphs and output figures from Mic Mac software.
Also, the almost high percentage of the filling factor (95%) in the research variables confirms the validity and reliability of the research tools at an almost high level.
 
Conclusion
The results show that resilience in Tehran follows the macro structure of the economic system of this metropolis. So that more privileged areas have more resilience and less privileged areas have lower resilience. It can be said that the entire urban structure of Tehran is at an unfavorable level of resilience. Failure to improve, neglecting sustainable development and continuing the current situation will lead to bad scenarios in environmental, social and economic fields.   And in the event of a crisis, it will cause irreparable damage to Tehran.
 
Funding
There is no funding support.
 
Authors’ Contribution
E.F. contributed to the data collection, analysis, and manuscript writing. A.P., K.Z. and H.F.S. supervised the article and provided the necessary guidance for analyzing and using the model. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
 
Conflict of Interest
All authors certify that they have no affiliation with or involvement in any organization or entity with any financial interest or non-financial interest in the subject matter or materials discussed in this manuscript.
 
Acknowledgments
 We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper.