تهران سالمند واقعیتی گریزناپذیر: تحلیل پیشران‌های مؤثر بر سالمندی شهر تهران

ABSTRACT
The growth of urban populations and population aging have been identified as two defining characteristics of the 21st century. Population aging is a global and widespread phenomenon driven by various factors. This study aims to analyze the key drivers influencing population aging in Tehran. A mixed-methods approach was adopted. The initial identification of drivers was carried out through a scoping review and semi-structured interviews based on the STEEPV model. To refine the list of drivers and evaluate their significance, the Delphi method was utilized, and the MICMAC structural analysis method was employed for cross-impact analysis. The findings revealed that variables such as economic stagnation, globalization, modern values, and purchasing power are independent drivers. Meanwhile, variables including the economic status of society, poverty, unemployment and employment rates, economic inequality, lifestyle, quality of life, migration rates, political stability, individualism and personal values, urbanization, social beliefs and values, social inequality, and social capital are dual-role variables with significant influence on determining the aging trajectory of Tehran. The results indicate that, given the current circumstances, the nature of these drivers, and the projected social and economic changes, Tehran’s population is moving toward aging at an accelerated pace. The emergence of advanced aging within Tehran is considered an inevitable reality. Therefore, it is recommended that, in addition to policies aimed at improving economic conditions and managing social changes to decelerate the aging process, special focus be placed on implementing strategies for active aging, improving and adapting the physical environment, and promoting age-friendly urban policies.
Extended Abstract
Introduction
The growth of urban populations and the aging of societies are among the defining challenges of the 21st century. Population aging has become a global phenomenon, with projections indicating that by 2050, the proportion of the global population aged 65 and above will rise from 13% to 21%, reaching 23% by the end of the century. National projections for Iran suggest that by 2041, approximately 19% of the population will be elderly. Specifically in Tehran, estimates indicate that by 2036, the elderly will constitute nearly 20% of the province’s population. This suggests a more pronounced aging trend in Tehran compared to the national average, positioning it as one of the city's significant demographic challenges in the coming decades. Accordingly, this study aims to identify and evaluate the primary drivers of aging in Tehran, examining their relative significance and analyzing their influence on the city’s demographic transition.
 
Methodology
This research employs a mixed-methods approach grounded in futures studies methodology. To identify initial aging drivers, a scoping review of the literature, both global and local, theoretical and empirical, was conducted using the STEEPV (Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, Political, and Values) framework. Semi-structured expert interviews complemented this. The preliminary list of drivers was refined through two rounds of the Delphi method, and their significance was assessed using the Marcus matrix method. Ultimately, 36 variables with Marcus' final coefficients greater than 0.2 were selected as final drivers. These were incorporated into a cross-impact matrix for structural analysis, which was conducted using MICMAC (Matrix of Cross Impact Multiplications Applied to a Classification) software.
 
Results and discussion
The structural analysis of direct impacts identified economic recession, globalization, modern values, and purchasing power as independent variables. Dual-impact variables included economic conditions, poverty, unemployment, economic inequality, lifestyle, quality of life, migration rates, political stability, individualism, urbanization, social values, social inequality, and social capital. Dependent variables encompassed marginalization, family orientation, fertility rate, single-person households, average age of marriage, divorce rate, mortality rate, emigration, and internal migration. Autonomous variables included mobility, health technologies, healthcare legislation, retirement and insurance policies, family support laws, health monitoring technologies, environmental risks, and the condition of pension funds. Indirect impact analysis indicated that economic conditions, poverty, economic recession, employment and unemployment rates, and economic inequality had the highest indirect influence. In contrast, pension funds, average age of marriage, health technologies, family support laws, and health monitoring systems had the least indirect influence. Additionally, lifestyle, average age of marriage, single-person households, marginalization, and fertility rate showed the highest levels of indirect dependency. At the same time, pension funds, environmental risks, insurance legislation, healthcare policies, and health monitoring technologies demonstrated minimal indirect dependency.
 
Conclusion
The findings underscore the significant role of economic factors, particularly economic conditions, poverty, unemployment, and inequality, in influencing the aging process in Tehran. These drivers primarily exert their influence through economic pathways and their interactions with other demographic drivers. Furthermore, dual-impact variables such as economic recession, globalization, modern values, and purchasing power illustrate the complex interplay of economic and socio-cultural dimensions shaping aging trends. Macroeconomic conditions at both national and global levels heavily influence these. Other key drivers, including lifestyle, quality of life, migration, political stability, individualism, urbanization, social values, and social capital, carry strong socio-cultural dimensions and function as strategic target variables, shaping the trajectory of other influences. Meanwhile, social and ecological factors such as marginalization, fertility rates, delayed marriage, divorce, mortality, and migration are predominantly shaped by overarching economic and social forces. Addressing population aging in Tehran requires comprehensive policy responses and strategic interventions targeting these drivers. However, attempts to shift certain dynamics, such as increasing fertility rates or reducing the average age of marriage, are likely to encounter resistance due to entrenched individualistic values and evolving lifestyles. Given the current socio-political and economic landscape, the aging trajectory in Tehran is accelerating, rendering severe population aging a likely and pressing reality. As such, the need for long-term planning and integrated policy frameworks in both the social and economic sectors is urgent. Policymakers must prioritize the aging issue in both Tehran and Iran and develop actionable strategies to manage its main drivers. Despite the limited potential for short-term reversal of these trends, preparations for a rapidly aging society are essential. Key recommendations include the promotion of active aging strategies, physical environment adaptation, and the implementation of age-friendly city policies tailored to the needs of an aging population.
 
Funding
This article is derived from the futures study and compilation of the strategic document of Tehran's aging project. The project was funded by the Research and Planning Center of Tehran and implemented by the Institute for Humanities and Social Studies of the Academic Center for Education, Culture and Research (ACECR).
 
Authors’ Contributions
All authors contributed to all stages and sections of the article.
 
Conflict of Interest
The authors declare that there is no conflict of interest.
 
Acknowledgments
The authors would like to express their gratitude to the Research and Planning Center of Tehran, the General Department of Health of Tehran Municipality, and the Institute for Humanities and Social Studies for their support and collaboration throughout the course of this research.