تحلیل آماری ابعاد توسعۀ پایدار شهری در شهر ارومیه

نوع مقاله: پژوهشی - کاربردی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشکدۀ علوم انسانی و اجتماعی دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر

2 دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز

3 کارشناس ارشد جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر

چکیده

متناسب با افزایش روزافزون چالش‌های شهری در حوزه‌های مختلف، داشتن نگاهی راهبردی و جامع برای سمت و سو دادن به این ابعاد چالش‌زا و آسیب‌پذیر در شهرها، با رویکرد پایداری در فرایند توسعۀ شهرها محقق خواهد شد. نگاهی به رویکردهای آینده‌نگرانه و متعالی در جهت بینش متوازن و عدالت‌محور به مفهوم توسعه سرلوحۀ سیاست‌های مدیریت و برنامه‌ریزی شهری قرار گرفته است. در این راستا و متناسب با ضرورت یادشده، پژوهش حاضر با روش‌شناسی «توصیفی – تحلیلی» و با هدف ارزیابی ابعاد توسعۀ پایدار شهری در شهر ارومیه به انجام رسیده است. برای تحقق هدف پژوهش الگوهای توسعۀ پایدار شهری در 7 عنوان اقتصاد شهری پایدار، جامعۀ شهری پایدار، مسکن شهری پایدار، محیط زیست شهری پایدار، دسترسی شهری پایدار، زندگی شهری پایدار و مردم‌سالاری شهری پایدار با 35 متغیر انتخاب و دسته‌بندی شده‌اند. برای دستیابی به داده‌های مورد نیاز پژوهش به روش پیمایشی - اسنادی و با استفاده از پرسش‌نامه از نظرهای شهروندان ارومیه بهره گرفته شده است. جامعۀ آماری پژوهش 322 نفر از شهروندان ارومیه است که با استفاده از روش نمونه‌گیری خوشه‌ای چند‌مرحله‌ای و تصادفی ساده انتخاب شده‌اند. قلمرو زمانی پژوهش تابستان سال 1392 است. برای تحلیل ابعاد پایداری شهری از تحلیل‌های رگرسیونی خطی، لجستیک، لگاریتمی و آنالیز درختی استفاده شده است. مطابق نتایج پژوهش تحلیل درختی داده‌ها برای تشخیص چشم‌انداز ابعاد پایداری شهری نشان می‌دهد بعد مردم‌سالاری شهری پایدار با شناسایی دو شاخه و میانگین کلی 32/22، از دیدگاه شهروندان وضعیت نامناسبی نسبت به دیگر ابعاد پایداری در شهر ارومیه دارد. آنالیز رگرسیونی در شکل خطی، لجستیک و لگاریتمی آن برای ابعاد پژوهش نشان می‌دهد دو بعد سکونتگاه شهری پایدار و مردم‌سالاری شهری پایدار ضعیف‌ترین تأثیر را بر پایداری شهری در شهر ارومیه دارند. تلفیق کلی نتایج مدل‌های رگرسیونی حکایت از تأثیرگذاری 101/0 از ابعاد پایداری بر توسعۀ پایدار شهری در ارومیه دارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Statistical Analysis of Sustainable Development in Urmia City

نویسندگان [English]

  • Amer Nikpour 1
  • Hadi Alizadeh 2
  • Mahnaz Hosseini Siahgoli 3
1 Assistant Professor, Geography and Urban Planning, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran
2 PhD Candidate of Geography and Urban Planning, Shahid Chamran University, Ahwaz, Iran
3 M.A. Student in Geography and Urban Planning, Mazandaran, Babolsar University, Iran
چکیده [English]

Introduction
According to the increasing rate of urban challenges in various areas, it is required to adopt a strategic and comprehensive approach to sustainable urban development in dealing with the challenging and vulnerable aspects of cities. Adopting a future-oriented and sublime approach has been considered in the agenda of urban planning and management policies for development. This is to provide an impartial and justice-centered insight into the axes of the development. For this purpose, seven sustainable urban development patterns, namely sustainable urban economy, sustainable urban community, sustainable urban housing, sustainable urban environment, sustainable urban access, sustainable urban living, and sustainable urban democracy, with 35 variables were selected and classified.
Harlem Brantdlnd (1987) introduced the concept of sustainable development for the first time in a report entitled "Our Common Future". This report offered the following definition of sustainable development: “Development that meets the needs of the present generation without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs and enjoy the resources”. This report has introduced seven strategic imperatives, namely “Reviving Growth, Changing the Quality of Growth, Meeting Essential Human Needs, Ensuring a Sustainable Level of Population, Conserving & Enhancing the Resource Base, Reorienting Technology & Managing Risk, and Merging Environmental & Economic Components in Decision Making”. In fact, adopting a human-oriented approach over and above paying attention to the environment has been the first impression perceived from the principles and fundamentals of the development at a sustainable level. Social justice and fairness in allocation of development resources without undermining other areas of development is the exact inference drawn from the sustainability of urban development. Urban planning and even urban design policies are nowadays faced with this issue.
Methodology
The purpose of this research is to analyze the aspects of sustainable urban development in Urmia through adopting an applied goal-setting strategy and conducting both analytical and descriptive survey. Subject-related library documents have been chosen as a basis for conducting the research and getting access to the descriptive data required for the study. The survey method was used as an instrument for collecting the necessary analytical data. Linear, logistic, and logarithmic regression analyses and tree analysis have been used as research tools to elaborate the survey method output.
Results and Discussion
At this stage of the research, a tree analysis has been carried out in order to evaluate the priorities of sustainable urban development in Urmia from the perspective of its citizens. The results of the tree analysis contribute to evaluation of the priorities of indicators based on the aforementioned statistical measures from the perspective of the citizens through classification of overall average. This, in return, was gained by each aspect of the sustainability, calculation of the closely-related standard deviation, and making an overall prediction from synthesizing the low, medium and high averages. In this analysis, it was required to classify and evaluate the data in order to provide the dependent variable. For this purpose, the data below the average level was classified with the value of “zero” and those above the average level with the value of “one”. These data were regarded as the variables required for the evaluation. According to the results of the study, the tree analysis aiming at identifying the perspective of urban sustainability aspects denotes that sustainable urban democracy (identified in two branches with an overall average of 22.32) has an inappropriate condition for the perspective of the citizens compared with the other aspects of sustainability in Urmia. Linear, logistic, and logarithmic regression analyses of the aspects denote that the two aspects of sustainable urban settlement and sustainable urban democracy have the weakest impact on the urban sustainability of Urmia. Overall combination of the results obtained from the regression models represents the impact of sustainability aspects on sustainable urban development in Urmia (with a value of 0.101).
Conclusions
Nowadays, the concept of sustainability in development process has become the cornerstone of all policies related to growth and development of human societies. It is necessary to consider this concept to achieve social balance and justice and human-centered development. In this study, the sustainability aspect of urban development in Urmia has been assessed and evaluated using the sustainability for urban development discussed at the conference on “Future of the Twentieth-Century Cities” held in Munich, Germany. For this purpose, the seven aspects of sustainable urban economy, sustainable urban community, sustainable urban housing, sustainable urban environment, sustainable urban access, sustainable urban living, and sustainable urban democracy with 35 variables were brought into questions in the form of questionnaire and survey from the viewpoint of Urmia citizens. The citizen feedbacks were collected subsequently. The purpose of this survey was to identify the priority levels of the seven aspects in the process of sustainable urban development of Urmia from the perspective of its citizens and identifying the impact significance of the aspects considered in the process of sustainable urban development in Urmia. The first stage of the research has been performed with the target group based on a tree analysis. The results of this stage represent low average of sustainable urban democracy compared with dependent variable in the employed conceptual model. The results showed that this aspect of the public perspective needs to be improved and that this aspect has the highest priority at this stage. At the second stage, impact of the aspects proposed in the sustainable urban development process in Urmia has been measured using linear, logarithmic, and logistic regression models. At this stage, the aspects of sustainable urban democracy, sustainable urban environment and sustainable urban economy (from the selected aspects of sustainable urban development) have represented the lowest and the weakest impact compared with other indicators. These are based on the way of explaining the data effectiveness variance in the three regression models. Although, explaining the data resulted from the regression models may not be a satisfactory measure to describe the effect of the aspects on reliability of the research, the existing significance denotes that the two aspects of sustainable urban living and sustainable urban community have the greatest impact on realization of sustainable urban development in Urmia.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Sustainable Development
  • sustainability aspects
  • Urmia
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