تحلیلی بر بازآفرینی پایدار شهری با رویکرد انسجام و پیوستگی بر اساس آینده‌پژوهی سناریو مبنا مطالعه موردی: محلات شمالی بافت تاریخی – فرهنگی شهر تبریز

A B S T R A C T
Urban regeneration aims to reverse the flow of urban change and decline. In the context of urban regeneration, new types of organizations are being formed, whose goal is to look at development from the bottom up, in which all actors are involved, and this will lead to the development of sustainable solutions in the long term. This research has been carried out with the aim of sustainable reconstruction of the northern neighbourhoods of the historical-cultural context of Tabriz city. Based on its nature, the research method is comparative-analytical, and from the point of view of the goal, it is considered part of applied research. The variables extracted from the theoretical foundations were examined through interviews with 15 expert experts (university professors, specialists, managers and experts of the housing and urban planning department and municipality). In this research, economic, social, physical, environmental and management indicators and targeted sampling have been used. Structural equation analysis models, GBN scenario writing model, SWOT and QSPM have been used to analyze the data. The results of the research showed that among the 39 factors, 15 key factors play a role in the regeneration of the studied area, based on the importance and uncertainty of two economic and managerial factors, four scenarios were proposed, and to reach the golden scenario, the competitive strategy (ST) should be considered. By providing strategies for the preparation of a special plan for the historical contexts of the localities, creating investment for employment and the basis for the activities of NGOs, receiving special loans for reconstruction, and closely monitoring compliance with the rules and regulations of urban development, it is possible to recreate the sustainable contexts of the studied localities.
Extended Abstract
Introduction
The northern neighborhoods of the historical-cultural part of Tabriz city have a population of 21327 people and an area of 1163352 square meters, which still need to implement comprehensive and appropriate urban regeneration plans. Success in the implementation of urban regeneration plans, in addition to the determination of the responsible institutions, requires a comprehensive view of the plans and recognition of the value of the regions because only paying attention to one aspect of the dimensions of urban issues and the effects of the plans in the target neighborhoods will not guarantee their success. What has destroyed the stability of the historical-cultural texture of the northern neighborhoods is the need for a special historical-cultural texture plan that follows the rules and regulations of urban development, followed by random interventions that have caused the instability of the studied texture. Moreover, over many years, the density of the texture has increased, and the changes in land uses, especially the ignoring of valuable historical-cultural land uses, have added to the problems. As a result, the hierarchy of communication networks needs to respond to the current density and land uses.
If the current trends continue, the integrity of the historical-cultural textures of the northern part of Tabriz will gradually be lost with the change of livelihood methods. The resulting consequences and the failure to maintain the balance between the economic, social, and environmental aspects of these localities' historical and cultural texture and the localities' inefficiency will increase daily. Moreover, on the other hand, as long as projects lead to constructions that only respond to economic demands, the long-term needs of citizens should be addressed, and the chance to maintain and create livable neighborhoods and sustainable communities should be preserved. In this case, households with high financial power leave these neighborhoods as the main driver of urban development and regeneration. Finally, these neighborhoods lose their concept as a factor in establishing social identity, and the instability of the texture is intensified.
 
Methodology
In terms of its nature, the present research method is a combination of comparative-analytical methods, and in terms of its purpose, it is considered a part of applied research. The current article has two parts, including the review and analysis of the theoretical foundations and background of the research to identify dimensions and components, and the second part includes providing a process model using interpretive structural modeling. The obtained variables were analyzed through interviews with experts (university professors and administrators, municipal and housing experts related to urban regeneration). Finally, 39 variables were identified as factors affecting the instability of the northern neighborhoods of the historical-cultural textures of Tabriz city. In this study, the validity of the Questionnaire uses the variables of previous research under the supervision of experienced professors. Moreover, to measure the reliability of the questionnaire questions, Cronbach's alpha was used, in which Cronbach's alpha coefficient for all questionnaires was 0.807. Finally, the Questionnaire in the form of 39 *39 (1521 modes) was given to 15 experts and experts in the form of targeted sampling. The data used in this Questionnaire are quantitatively produced by Delphi weight. Then the points are entered into the cross-matrix to determine the influence and impact of each within the MIC MAC software framework. The propulsion agents then entered the GBN model for scenario writing and provided possible scenarios. Then, to formulate the Golden Scenario Strategies, based on the SWOT model, and finally, prioritize with the QSPM technique of strategies.
 
Results and discussion
The relationship between 39 identified items affecting the future of the northern
 
 
neighborhoods of the historical-cultural texture of Tabriz city has been measured using the mutual effects matrix method and
by 15 experts. The amount of direct and indirect effects of variables has been done with the help of direct and indirect classification of variables according to their effectiveness and impressionability based on system logic and by the output of MIC MAC software. Based on this, 15 factors were identified in this research. After determining the importance and uncertainty scores, the importance-uncertainty matrix drawn as a result of the two factors of employment and the concentration of regeneration decisions in the country's center is the factor with the highest level of uncertainty and importance. Then the scenarios are determined. In this classification, paying attention to the rank and score of the desired uncertainty and the positive or negative situation considered in the scenario for each one is decisive. The golden scenario, i.e., the sustainable regeneration of the northern neighborhoods of the historical-cultural texture of Tabriz, will take place when the status of the economic factor (employment) is in a positive and growing trend, and the management method (efficient and collaborative management) is the factor. The disaster scenario will also happen in the opposite direction and against the golden scenario. The believable scenario is that the situation of the economic factor is with a negative trend and the management style moves towards management from the bottom to the top. In order to achieve the desired scenario, the SWOT analytical model has been selected. According to the final score of the internal and external factors in the reconstruction of the northern neighborhoods of the historical-cultural
 
 
 
 
texture, the strategic position is determined in the nine-house matrix of the site of
preservation and maintenance and in the square matrix in the third area, which ST strategies are chosen accordingly.
 
Conclusion
Considering the late approach of regeneration, the cohesion and continuity of the historical cores and the prosperity of the historical cores of the cities and paying attention to the urban cores as cultural heritage and protecting them for economic efficiency has played a significant role in the regeneration of these areas. Today, due to the lack of coordination in the elements of the planning system, the partial actions of institutions and enterprise orientation and the interference of their duties in the absence of a comprehensive view of urban planning have led to the ineffectiveness of the historical-cultural textures of cities. Meanwhile, the limitation of resources and time to fix the inefficiency has caused double challenges, which, undoubtedly, if there is no change in the current approach and procedures, a risky future can be considered.
 
Funding
There is no funding support.
 
Authors’ Contribution
All of the authors approved thecontent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work.
 
Conflict of Interest
Authors declared no conflict of interest.
 
Acknowledgments
We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper.