تحلیل و آینده‌پژوهی اثرات توسعه شهر جدید عالیشهر بر سکونتگاه‌های پیرامونی

A B S T R A C T
The purpose of this research is to analyze the effects of the new city of Alishahr on the surrounding settlements and to study the future of these effects to draw its different futures from the perspective of different scenarios. In this research, to identify the key factors, after two stages of screening, 54 variables were finally identified in the form of eight indicators, and the future research method was used in the form of mix-and-match analysis and scenario writing. For this research, the opinions of the Delphi group and the snowball sampling method were used. According to the findings of this research, nine important key factors include changes in commercial and residential uses; the Hadi plan for the surrounding villages of the new city; the road network of surrounding settlements; changes in the construction and settlement of the surrounding areas; urbanism of villagers; Communication ways of surrounding settlements; physical expansion of the new city towards the surrounding cities; The access of surrounding settlements to communication and telecommunication means and the location of the village about the road were identified. According to the results obtained from the scenario wizard, there are six compatible and identical scenarios regarding the effects of the new city of Aalishahr on peri-urban areas. The findings of this research allow the policymakers, planners and regional managers to have a better understanding of the future conditions to be able to create more favourable and reasonable conditions of urban development while maintaining the aspect draw the life of peri-urban areas in the future and make decisions about it, this will bring closer the conditions of sustainability in the current conditions with the possibility of achieving sustainability in the future
Extended abstract
Introduction
Peri-urban areas can be characterized as dynamic spaces with fluid spatial and structural elements, where urban and rural development processes converge at the city's edge and interact with one another. These areas feature an ambiguous spectrum with undefined boundaries, and their land use patterns often vary due to pressures on natural resources and labor market opportunities.
In our country, the development of new cities has evolved through two distinct approaches. Prior to the revolution, new cities accommodated populations with pre-defined occupations situated near the city, taking on the form of industrial, military, oil, or administrative towns. In contrast, contemporary new cities are designed to decentralize larger cities, relocate certain industries from those cities, and provide housing for low-income workers, among other objectives. Government policy in these cities typically involves establishing a municipality and offering basic amenities.
However, the policy of constructing new cities in Iran has not adhered to a hierarchical urban network system. Consequently, the degree of attention—or lack thereof—given to spatial and logical trends in their development has impacted the surrounding areas of new cities. This has led to a unique type of transformation in the settlements of these emerging urban centers.
The selection of Aalishahr as a new city was approved by the Supreme Council of Architecture and Urban Planning, taking into account the region's physical conditions and various factors. These factors include Bushehr's urban development limitations, such as being bordered by water to the north and west, military bases to the south and southwest, industrial centers to the east and west, as well as constraints arising from the presence of a nuclear power plant and Bushehr city's rapid population growth.
Aalishahr, given its favorable physical conditions and the aforementioned factors, aims to accommodate the excess population from Bushehr's urban area, establish a city economy centered around regional industries and higher education services, preserve the city and region's ecological balance, and create a suitable environment. Envisioned as an ideal location, Aalishahr is designed to have a capacity of approximately 100,000 people, covering an area of around 1,000 hectares for housing and investment and serving as a university hub in the province.
 
Methodology
In this study, the snowball sampling method was employed using the Delphi technique for the purposeful selection of participants. The statistical population for the questionnaire collection process was divided into two distinct levels: first, experts and specialists in new cities from the Urban Development Company, the municipality of the new city of Aalishahr, and the governorate; second, university specialists and experts who had published articles and research in the field of new cities. Utilizing the Delphi group within the snowball sampling framework, 12 people responded to the distributed questionnaires.
To examine the impact of Aalishahr's development on the surrounding settlements, an initial list of 909 variables was identified across 12 indices based on an in-depth research literature review. A questionnaire was then sent to the Delphi group to validate the comprehensive list of indices and variables, resulting in a refined list of 165 variables across 9 indices. In the third step, each group member was asked to select the factor within each list that best aligned with the critical subject and specific local conditions under investigation. After further refining the variables, 54 variables were chosen as the final factors influencing the effects of Aalishahr's development on peri-urban areas, organized into 8 primary indices (economic, social, physical, environmental, infrastructural, cultural, individual, and medical-health). These selected indices were analyzed using futures studies methods, including cross-impact structural analysis and scenario-based cross-impact balance (CIB) analysis.
 
 
Results and discussion
In this study, all 54 factors influencing the effects of the new city of Aalishahr on peri-urban and surrounding areas were analyzed and evaluated using the cross-impact analysis method. The systemic structure with interconnected elements, including all factors impacting the surrounding settlements, was considered as a single structure. The relationships between these factors were assessed to identify the predominant factors with a greater impact. Among the 2,209 evaluable relationships in this matrix, 707 had a value of zero, 653 had a value of one, 945 had a value of two, and 611 had a value of three. To analyze the direct impacts of the variables, the MICMAC software measured each variable relationship, determining the extent and degree of their direct impacts on each other.
Scenario analysis results revealed 6 scenarios with strong compatibility, 815 with weak compatibility, and 278 incompatible scenarios. The table of strong scenarios consists of 54 different probable situations, with the number of favorable situations surpassing the unfavorable ones. Among these 54 probable situations, 18.51% are in critical conditions, 44.44% are in relatively critical or crisis-prone conditions, 3.70% are in indifferent situations, 14.81% are in relatively favorable situations, and 18.51% are in completely favorable situations. In total, 62.95% of the situations are unfavorable, and 33.32% are favorable. Out of the 6 possible scenarios, 2 have favorable situations (scenarios one and two), while scenarios three, four, and five have intermediate situations, and scenario six presents an unfavorable situation.
 
Conclusion
The development of the new city of Aalishahr has encompassed a vast area, including natural resources and forest lands previously belonging to the surrounding rural settlements. This has constrained rural boundaries and, to a certain extent, agricultural lands, necessitating a reevaluation of rural development plans around Aalishahr. Additionally, limited land availability for waste disposal and the absence of a significant land slope for sewage networks have resulted in improper and stagnant sewage discharge, causing considerable environmental pollution for the neighboring settlements.
Nonetheless, the development process also carries positive aspects. It has fostered the modernization and expansion of rural road networks, enhanced connectivity with the provincial capital city of Bushehr, and established an efficient link within the communication network. Furthermore, the new city has improved the standing of villages located along the primary communication routes.
Given the predominantly service-oriented nature of villages surrounding Aalishahr, which focus less on agriculture, the new city has successfully provided a rural labor market. The establishment of commercial units catering to the needs of Aalishahr, along with additional employment opportunities for villagers, are among the other benefits. The impact of the new city on the urban development of nearby villages has led to physical changes, including the emergence of urban-style housing. The villagers' access to water, electricity, and gas networks has been positively influenced by the availability of these services in Aalishahr, benefiting the surrounding rural settlements.
 
Funding
There is no funding support.
 
Authors’ Contribution
All of the authors approved thecontent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work.
 
Conflict of Interest
Authors declared no conflict of interest.
 
Acknowledgments
We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper.